Picking up from the first part of this piece, Jeremy Corbyn’s decision not to resign even in the face of rebellion by the vast majority of his Parliamentary Labour Party (with only one in five Labour MPs having expressed confidence in their leader), puts the rebels in a rather difficult position.
They know that an election might be called by the next Conservative Prime Minister as early as later next year – though more probably early next year – and they believe that if they enter the election with Corbyn at the helm, then Labour will be obliterated by the result. It is currently thought by some that if an election were held tomorrow Labour could lose well over 100 MPs, possibly as much as 150. Yet it is quite probable that a significant number of Labour party members, if not a majority, still support Jeremy Corbyn. It is therefore possible that if they force Corbyn into a leadership contest, he could simply win again.
If this occurred then there likely wouldn’t be a chance of removing Corbyn until the next election (if he lost), by which time, many Labour MPs believe, the damage to the Labour party may already have been done. Corbyn supporters however, still think he has a chance of winning because of his kinder, more honest style of politics. They also believe that he should not take the blame for Labour failing to convince enough of their own voters to vote to Remain in the European Union on the day of the referendum.
As a result, it is unlikely that Labour rebels will put forward more than one candidate to contest Corbyn in a leadership election. This is because if they field two, three or four candidates, it will split the vote of anti-Corbyn members of the party, making it far more likely that Corbyn will win. But with only a choice of one candidate, they will have to choose very carefully which Labour MP they wish to challenge him.
Some Labour MPs believe that they need to choose someone who will unify the party after such a period of infighting. Consequently, the current favourites to challenge Corbyn are thought to be Angela Eagle and Tom Watson, as they are left-wing (rather than more centrist) politicians who can bridge the gap between the Corbyn supporters and the moderates of the party. As the Guardian writes of Angela Eagle, who up until recently served as Jeremy Corbyn’s Shadow Business Secretary:
“Angela Eagle has emerged as the early frontrunner to challenge Jeremy Corbyn, a staunch trade unionist favoured by the party’s soft left.”
She is considered to have performed well in the House of Commons when covering for Corbyn at Prime Minister’s questions and is also described by the Guardian as having “economic nous, having served in the Treasury under Gordon Brown.” If she can get some of the trade unions on her side, Angela Eagle might have a fair chance of winning. Though at present many union leaders still back Corbyn as far as we know so, if she is going to run, she may have quite a job convincing them over to her side.
In short, it looks like the party is going to be warring with itself for some time yet, with nobody able to predict what state the party will be in by next year.
Image: Photo: JLPC / Wikimedia Commons, via Wikimedia Commons
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