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The election campaign is now the major factor in determining voting behaviour.

The statement argues that the campaign is now the major factor in determining voting behaviour. However, many argue that factors such as media influence and opinion polls can play key roles in determining voting behaviour.

Party campaigns are a series of coordinated activities such as public speaking and demonstrating, designed to achieve a political goal. They aim to reinforce the views of those who are already committed to the party along with recruiting those who are undecided. They can play a major role in voting behaviour, as it’s an opportunity for the party to express their reasons as to why voters should support them. If successful, many floating voters who are currently undecided may chose to support a particular party after an inspirational public speech or appearance. For example, in David Cameron’s campaign in 2015 he was often pictured in family orientated locations in an attempt to win over parents thus potentially changing voting behaviour.

However, some argue that the campaign only makes a significant impact when the outcome is unpredictable. For example, in the recent London Mayoral elections it was considered to be a tight competition between Zac Goldsmith of the Conservatives and Sadiq Khan representing the Labour party. During the Conservative campaign Zac Goldsmith was severely criticized for falsely accusing his opposition of having links to the terrorist group Islamic State. As a result of this the Conservatives lost much support and Saidq Khan was elected Mayor of London. This demonstrates how campaigns can make a difference when the result is unpredictable, however this is rarely the case and campaigns often play a small role along many other major factors. Despite this, I believe the party campaign offers a clear projection of the party image and is a great opportunity to win over undecided voters; therefore campaigns do play a major role in determining voting behaviour. 

As well as campaigns, the media can also be a major factor in determining voting behaviour. The media can be divided into broadcast media, the press and new media. Despite the BBC and ITV having to remain politically impartial, newspapers are free to take sides. The media can influence voting behavior as people use it to educate themselves on political activity. Many people read newspapers as an aid to making a well-informed decision on Election Day, however many newspapers have been known to be bias towards particular parties. For example in the run up to the 2010 general election only the Mirror were favouring a Labour victory while the Daily Express, The times and 4 other daily newspapers were in support of the Conservatives. This means that only readers of the Mirror were encouraged to vote Labour while the rest of the population were exposed to support of the Conservatives. This could explain Labour’s loss of power in the 2010 elections therefore meaning that the media is a major factor in determining voting behaviour. 

However, Leon Festinger and David Denver argue that three processes limit media influence: selective exposure, selective perception and selective retention. Selective exposure is the idea that people only expose themselves to media that reflects their own view; selective perception suggests that readers/viewers will filter out any content that opposes their own ideas, while selective retention is the idea that people only retain information that can be used to justify their position. All three processes state that people only read, hear and see information that doesn’t challenge their own views. This means that the media does not influence people and therefore it can’t be the major factor in determining voting behaviour. Despite this, I believe people are prone to believing what they hear and see and as a result the media can play a key role in voting behaviour. However, I believe that campaigns can be more influencial as the electorate hears it from the parties themselves thus making campaigns the major factor in determining voting behavior. 

Finally, it can be argued than opinion polls can shape voting behaviour; in some countries, for example France, they’re banned in the fear that they will influence voting intentions. An opinion poll is a poll taken by sampling a cross section of the public in an effort to predict election results. There are two effects of opinion polls, the boomerang effect and the bandwagon effect, which are both said to shape opinion. The bandwagon effect suggests that voters are more likely to vote for parties that are doing well in the polls. Whereas the boomerang effect is the idea that people vote for the parties that are doing badly in the polls because they see them as the underdogs. Both effects can change peoples intentions and therefore opinion polls can be a major factor in determining voting behaviour. 

On the contrary, polls can be inaccurate and as a result people choose not to take much notice of them. This inaccuracy could be for several reasons. Its possible that respondents were not registered, for example in 1992 many respondents had not registered to vote (possibly to avoid the Poll Tax). The average final poll error was 8.9% and this could explain why. Furthermore some respondents could be lying; it’s said that many people are ashamed to be voting Conservative. Such factors mean that opinion polls can be unreliable and therefore people tend not to pay attention to them; this indicates that opinion polls are not a major factor in determining voting behaviour. Despite this I believe the boomerang effect and the bandwagon effect are legitimate influences of voting behaviour. However, in my opinion, opinion polls are only a minor influence in comparison to other more reliable factors such as campaigns, which I believe to be the major factor in determining opinion polls.

In conclusion, I believe for a multitude of reasons that Campaigns are the major factor in determining voting behaviour. Other factors such as the media and opinion polls have proven to be less influential in comparison to the legitimacy and reliability of campaigns; therefore making campaigns a key role in determining voting behaviour.