It soon became clear that a material change in circumstances included in Nicola Sturgeon’s mind a vote by the UK to leave the European Union in the referendum on our membership of the organisation this year. This was on the basis that Scotland was very pro-EU and that therefore a vote to leave would be against the will of the Scottish people.
And on the 23rd of June Britain did indeed vote to leave the European Union, though by a very small margin, with 52% voting in favour of leaving and 48% in favour of remaining. Additionally, Scotland lived up to its reputation of being much more in favour of the EU than the rest of the UK. 62% of the Scottish electorate voted to remain with only 38% voting to leave. By comparison, in England 47% of its electorate voted to remain and 53% voted to leave.
However, in light of the vote, whilst Alex Salmond said that this was a significant and material change in circumstances and said that a second independence referendum was now certain, Nicola Sturgeon said to the Scottish Parliament as First Minister:
“I want to be clear to parliament that whilst I believe that independence is the best option for Scotland – I don’t think that will come as a surprise to anyone – it is not my starting point in these discussions. My starting point is to protect our relationship with the EU.”
However, she also said that Scotland should not be brought out of the EU against its own will, that it was a “democratic outrage”, and that for her a second referendum on Scotland’s independence was on the table. The week after the referendum Sturgeon travelled to Brussels, the home of the EU, to meet with senior EU officials and Members of the European Parliament and discuss the potential for Scotland to remain in EU without having to leave the United Kingdom. However, the president of France and the Prime Minister of Spain both said they were opposed to negotiations with Scotland without the rest of the United Kingdom, suggesting they did not want it to become a member of the EU.
The French President Francois Holland said: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom".
Similarly, the Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy said: "Spain opposes any negotiation by anyone other than the government of United Kingdom…. I am extremely against it, the treaties are extremely against it and I believe everyone is extremely against it. If the United Kingdom leaves... Scotland leaves."
It therefore looks doubtful that Scotland will be able to become a member of the EU while it is still part of the United Kingdom. This arguably makes a second independence referendum more likely and it is more than possible that if one were held, Scotland would vote to leave the UK. One opinion poll taken just after the EU referendum suggested that nearly 60% of the Scottish people now want Scotland to be independent. But whether they’ll be able to have another referendum on the matter is not yet known.
Image: By Velella (Personal photograph taken by Velella.) [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
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